Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

UP

DOWN

DOWN

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we have just experienced a pullback from the breakdown area from back in 2000

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• Despite all the whipsaw action on the Daily chart, you can see the overall smooth trend above the uptrending Moving Averages.  Market has repeatedly found support at the MAs for the last few years
• Recent market decline has found initial support at the Moving Averages, as it has done various times in the current Weekly uptrend.  We will keep our eyes on the recent lows.  A break below the recent support on the market could market the start of a more substantial bearish trend

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with a nice MA uptrend starting with a crossover up at point ( A )
• Market followed with a smooth trend above the 20 day EMA.  There were over 7 pullbacks to the 20 day EMA which proved to be successful retests going into February
• We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA, which can give great signal for the sustainability of the current trends.  Market plunged through the 20 day EMA ( B ).  We will watch the MAs and action around the 20 day EMA carefully going forward
• Recent decline has the Daily chart in a new Downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( C ).  Despite the move back up above the 20 EMA, the Daily chart is still considered in a downtrend.  We will keep a close eye on the MAs going forward for any changes in trend
• Market traded sideways to down on the day, closing below the 5 day EMA ( D ), maintaining a short term downtrending bias. 
• Stochastics are nearly coming down through the overbought 80 line ( E ).  This is an early signal for a possible bearish short term trend

Hourly Chart:    

• This chart shows an overall uptrending Hourly chart dating back to January, when it broke out of a sideways range. 
• The frequent crossovers within the overall uptrending channel resembles a countertrend or trading range type of environment.  This type of trading conditions are very challenging to trade in
• Market pullback has MAs crossing down into an Hourly downtrend at point ( F )
• Market fell through its trading channel ( G ), following through on its overall Hourly Downtrend
• Market experienced a nice follow through to its break out of the recent trading channel
• Market rallied off its recent lows ( H ) to surge past the 20 hour EMA.  This marked the start of a countertrend on the Hourly charts
• After a rally to the MAs, market has revisited the recent lows on the market.  Note that the 20 EMA remained below the 50 EMA the entire time, thereby keeping the downtrend intact
• Hourly chart resumed its downtrend taking out the recent lows on the market.  The market then rallied back into the recent range ( I ), signaling a possible start of a countertrend or consolidation period. 
• Market rallied causing the Hourly MAs to cross up into an uptrend ( J ).  The Hourly chart is now considered into a sideways to uptrend with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• Despite market pullback today, the Hourly chart remains in an uptrend with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  Prices are below the MAs which signal a red flag to the current trend.   We will keep a close watch on the MAs for any crossover which would mark a change in trend

5 Minute Chart: 

• Intraday market has entered into a sideways trading range.  We will keep a close watch out for any breakouts/downs from this intraday range

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   Despite the pullback in the market, the Long Term uptrend on the market is still intact with the 20 Week EMA above the 50 Week EMA.  We will keep a close watch on the recent market bottom as critical support on the sustainability of the current Weekly uptrend.  A break of the March lows could signal the start of a longer term bearish trend.

The longer term trend is down with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.   We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the current downtrend.  The market surged above the 20 day EMA today raising a slight red flag to the current downtrend.  We will continue to watch market action around the 20 day EMA going forward. 

The short term trend is sideways to up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  We would like to point out however, two red flags coming from the short term factors on the Daily chart with Daily prices closing below the 5 day EMA AND Stochastics nearly coming down through the overbought area.  These factors can often precede a change in the Hourly trend.  In light of this we assess the overall Hourly chart to be in a sideways trend. We will keep a close watch on the Hourly MAs for signs of a more definitive trend.

We now have conflicting signals between short and long term trends.   Due to this mixed signals we will keep trading conservative while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

March was a very exciting month here at SwingTrade.com.  We implemented our new Swing Trading Strategy and hit the ground running.  March saw gains of 18.53% for 5.53 in point profits.  This falls in nicely with our Monthly average of 8.57% for 3.62 points.  We are also sitting on a fair number of trades with unrealized gains.  Overall we are very excited with this new trading strategy.  This new strategy takes advantage of larger moves in stock trends with longer time frames, and larger profit targets.  We are also able to deliver a significant amount of trade alerts, giving traders an ample selection to choose from.  Stay tuned for an announcement of our free 2 week swing trading trial coming soon. 

Day Trading pulled in another solid month of gains.  Gains on the month totaled 21.45% for 9.39 in point profits. Monthly averages are still at an astounding 31.90% for 11.92 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited had profitable month, despite the tough day trading conditions.  Gains came in nicely at 1.92% for 0.00in point profits.  This service is ideal for traders who have very limited access to the markets intraday but want to take advantage of profitable intraday moves in stocks. 

E-minis trading had a month of modest gains.  Despite this it was an exciting month with a lot of trading action.  Calls in the room fared a lot better than the reported numbers however results came in with a modest gain of $375. 

Here is a recap of the performance numbers:

We would like to thank everyone for joining us for this March Monthly Recap.   Have a great trading month ahead.