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Weekly Market Recap

Notes to Charts:

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with a nice MA uptrend starting with a crossover up at point ( A )
• Market followed with a smooth trend above the 20 day EMA.  There were over 7 pullbacks to the 20 day EMA which proved to be successful retests going into February
• We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA, which can give great signal for the sustainability of the current trends.  Market plunged through the 20 day EMA ( B ).  We will watch the MAs and action around the 20 day EMA carefully going forward
• Break in market trend caused the Daily chart to enter into a new Downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( C ).  We will keep a close eye on the MAs going forward for any changes in trend
• Daily chart MAs have crossed back up into an uptrend ( D ).  Frequent crossovers are indicative of a sideways range.  We will keep our eyes on the recent Highs and Lows on the market which defines the current trading range
• Market surged above the recent highs, continuing its overall uptrend
• Market traded sideways to up on the day, closing above the 5 day EMA ( E ), maintaining a short term uptrending bias. 
• Stochastics remains in an uptrend but above the overbought 80 line ( F ).  A crossover down through this line would indicate a short term negative trend

Hourly Chart:    

• This chart shows an overall uptrending Hourly chart starting at point ( G ) with a Moving Average crossover up
• Market experienced a number of pullbacks to the area  of the uptrending MAs where it found its support, thereby keeping the uptrend intact
• Market has recently pulled back below the MAs ( H ).  The uptrend is still intact with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA, however with prices below the MAs, it is a warning sign of a tired or possible change in trend. 
• Market surged ahead after the successful retest of the MAs.  The market action today is a continuation of the overall uptrend

5 Minute Chart: 

• Intraday market has an overall uptrend since the point ( I ) lows

Assessment:

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.   We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the current uptrend.  All trends are still intact for the uptrend.

The short term trend is up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  This is confirmed by with the short term factors on the Daily chart with prices above the 5 day EMA and Stochastics in an uptrend.  We do remain cautious with the Stochastics in an overbought condition.  We will keep a close watch on the Hourly MAs for signs of a change in trend.

We have confirming signals between short and long term trends, however with the mixed signals coming from the Hourly chart, we will take a more conservative stance while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.  We will remain cautious with the market in overbought territory.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Join us on our nightly newsletter as we break the market down on a nightly basis to help traders identify major market trends and opportunities.  We also point out significant warning signs that lead up to market reversals before they happen.

Enjoy swing trading...

Ken Matsumoto,
CEO & Swing Trader, SwingTrades.com

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