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Weekly Market Recap

Notes to Charts:

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with a nice MA uptrend starting with a crossover up at point ( A )
• Market followed with a smooth trend above the 20 day EMA.  There were over 7 pullbacks to the 20 day EMA which proved to be successful retests going into February
• We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA, which can give great signal for the sustainability of the current trends.  Market plunged through the 20 day EMA ( B ).  We will watch the MAs and action around the 20 day EMA carefully going forward
• Break in market trend caused the Daily chart to enter into a new Downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( C ).  We will keep a close eye on the MAs going forward for any changes in trend
• Daily chart MAs have crossed back up into an uptrend ( D ).  Frequent crossovers are indicative of a sideways range.  We will keep our eyes on the recent Highs and Lows on the market which defines the current trading range
• Market surged above the recent highs, continuing its overall uptrend
• Market traded up on the day, closing below the 5 day EMA ( E ), maintaining a short term downtrending bias.  This is a red flag to the current Hourly uptrend
• Stochastics remains in an uptrend but in overbought territory and nearly coming down ( F ).  A crossover down through this line would indicate a short term negative trend

Hourly Chart:    

• This chart shows a smooth Hourly uptrend chart starting before April
• Market experienced a number of pullbacks to the area  of the uptrending MAs where it found its support, thereby keeping the uptrend intact
• Market has recently pulled back below the MAs ( G ).  The uptrend is still intact with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA, however with prices below the MAs, it is a warning sign of a tired or possible change in trend. 
• Market continued with its uptrend by surging past the last resistance area
• Market pulled back surging below the MAs ( H ).  Although the Hourly trend is still considered up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA, we remain cautious to the long side.  We will keep a close watch on the Hourly MAs for signs of any MA crossovers indicating a change in the Hourly trend
• With prices and the MAs converged we wil

5 Minute Chart: 

• Intraday market went into an uptrend with a crossover up ( I ).  Note the smooth trend above the MAs that followed

Assessment:

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.   We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the current uptrend.  All trends are still intact for the uptrend.

The short term trend is up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  However we would like to point out the warning signs coming for the short factors on the Daily chart with prices below the 5 day EMA and Stocahstics nearly entering into a downtrend.  These two factors can often precede a change in the Hourly trend.  We will keep a close watch on the Hourly MAs for signs of a change in trend.

We have confirming signals between short and long term trends, however with the mixed signals coming from the Hourly chart, we will take a more conservative stance while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.  We will remain cautious with the market in overbought territory.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Join us on our nightly newsletter as we break the market down on a nightly basis to help traders identify major market trends and opportunities.  We also point out significant warning signs that lead up to market reversals before they happen.

Enjoy swing trading...

Ken Matsumoto,
CEO & Swing Trader, SwingTrades.com

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