Swing
Plays - UCTT XRTX ECA
Dec 29, 2006
- It’s interesting
that the $COMPQ, if the market remains unchanged, will post a near-doji for the
month of December...
These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long
positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15
trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street,
or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically
significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened
for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the
projections are for long positions.
For 12/29/2006
$INDU
$SPX
$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum Positive (OB)
Positive (OB) Positive
Weekly Momentum Positive
Negative
Negative
Daily Momentum Positive
Positive
Positive
Note: (OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to
price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be
defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the
stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the
stock is overvalued.
U.S. equity markets basically did nothing on the next to last day
of the trading year 2006. Economic news was positive (November new home sales
were up, Conference Board consumer confidence was up and the Chicago PMI was
reasonably strong), but traders were positive that they didn’t want to do much.
Unless there is a wave of tax selling of some kind, the same kind of action
might be the order of the day today.
There weren’t a lot of significant patterns either. The patterns
that did exist were found in the recently strong sectors like REITs (MAA),
petroleum exploration (ECA), telecom (CBEY), leisure products (NLS), healthcare
(PDCO), and electronics and computers (UCTT,ARXX, XRTX).
Here is what the nets saw today:
Value/Price estimate 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
UCTT 5.50/1
81.6%
2.16
0.39
3.18
XRTX 1.65/1
58.5%
1.92
0.51
2.39
ECA 21.44/1
87.5%
1.69
1.09
2.33
That’s it for now. It’s interesting that the $COMPQ, if the market
remains unchanged, will post a near-doji for the month of December. It also
appears that the $SPX has a wall of resistance near the 1438 area. Could early
2007 be vaguely reminiscent of early 1990? Only time will tell. The economy is
showing similar flashes of weakness and strength, and the world is just about
as crazy with Mr. Hussein facing the hangman as it was when he was invading
Kuwait 17 years ago. Traders will have the weekend to think about it, and
hopefully you will have the weekend to catch up on some kind of restful
activity. In any event, here is wishing you and yours a happy, productive, and
prosperous 2007.
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