Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

UP

UP

UP

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just above a major resistance area

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After the breakout, market continued to use the 20 week EMA as support on the trend.  This ended in May with two bearish candles to move under the 20 EMA ( 7 ).  This is a red flag to the current Weekly uptrend
• Despite the recent pullback the Weekly trend is still up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA ( 8 )
• Market has rallied up to take out the previous highs to keep the overall uptrend in tact

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with MAs in an uptrend starting from Late 2005 with 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• Market Daily chart broke its uptrend goes into a downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( A )
• Due to recent market rally, MAs have gone into an uptrend with the 20 EMA crossing up above the 50 EMA ( B ).  While we do note this crossover up, we do temper our enthusiasm to the upside with prices in the General Resistance Area.  MA crossovers in these areas can be choppy and meaningless. We will continue to watch market action carefully near this area 
• Market traded up on the day closing above the 5 day EMA ( C ) maintaining its short term uptrending bias.  Frequent crossovers of the MA is characteristic of a sideways range
• We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA, which can give great signal for the sustainability of the current trends.  Market is currently trading sideways just above this MA.  We will continue to watch the trends closely
• Stochastics has crossed down through the overbought 80 line ( D ).  This is a short term bearish signal 

Hourly Chart:    

• This chart shows a smooth Hourly uptrend which started in mid August
• Pullbacks within the overall uptrend were supported at the uptrending MAs ( E ).  Note how the 20 EMA remained above the 50 EMA, thereby keeping the uptrend intact
• After a few days of sideways trading at the MAs, market continued with its move off the highs and into a downtrend ( F )
• After a brief period in downtrend mode, the Hourly trend has changed back to up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA ( G ).  Frequent crossovers tells us the Hourly chart is in more a sideways to uptrend
• Market continued with a sideways range (noted in purple).  Uptrend bias intact with the 20 EMA above 50 EMA
• Market surged ahead to continue its overall Hourly uptrend by breaking the recent resistance ( H ). 
• Hourly chart moved into a downtrend with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA ( I ), but quickly crossover back up into an uptrend ( J ).  This is characteristic of a sideways range.  We will keep a close watch on the recent highs and lows (gray lines) for signals on the next trend.  Until then we assess the Hourly chart as a sideways range

5 Minute Chart: 
Intraday market in an overall uptrend after the recent breakdown

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   Market ended the month in new Multi-year high territory, thereby keeping the uptrend in tact.

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  Despite the uptrend, we would like to caution traders due to the recent rise in the market with little to no consolidation.  With the extreme overbought stochstics, market is very susceptible for possible near term corrections.  With the market trading near the 20 day EMA, we will remain cautious of the current uptrend status of the Daily charts. 

The short term trend is sideways to up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  We favor the assessment of a sideways trend more with mixed short term signals coming from the Daily chart with Daily prices above the 5 day EMA but Stochastics in a downtrend.  We will keep a close eye on the MAs and recent support areas for changes in the current assessment.

We now have conflicting signals between short and long term trends.  Due to the mixed signals coming from the Hourly chart we will keep a conservative approach to our trading while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

November was a pretty good month for the markets overall with approximately 2% gains in the S&P 500.  Things were also very good for our Swing Trading services as well.  We ended the month hitting on our last 8 trades, accumulating 12.49% in gains, for 4.85 in point profits.  Monthly performance numbers coming in at a healthy 8.38% for 3.86 points. 

Day Trading started the month off hot but gave back some in the end to choppy market conditions.  Although well off our monthly average, we did manage gains of 12.71% for just 0.53 point profits.  Monthly averages are still at an astounding 33.95% for 1260 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited service suffered its first red month ever.  Although losses were minimal at 1.30% for 1.32 points, it was a big disappointment for the trading team.  We are anxiously looking forward to December to get back on track with the usual winning record.

No trades to report on the E-mini service.  E-minis service is set to resume on December 1st.  Traders interested in joining the room for a free week trial, feel free to visit the following link:  Swingtrades.com Auto trading for the E-minis is also looking promising in the next coming weeks.  We will notify everyone via e-mail once this becomes available.