Weekly Trend

Daily Trend

Hour Trend

5 Minute Trend

UP

UP

UP

UP

Notes to Charts:

Broad Weekly Chart: 

• Chart puts market action since mid 1995 into perspective
• Smooth long term uptrend in MAs ended with crossover down in 2000 ( 1 )
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Note we now trading just below the all-time highs

Detailed Weekly Chart: 

• This chart zooms in on the Broad Weekly Chart
• End of long term downtrend with crossover up ( 2 ) in mid 2003
• Uptrend temporarily finds a top after Reversal Candle on March 2004 ( 3 )
• Weekly prices found support 3 times in the 50 EMA area.  Note that the MAs remained in an uptrend, despite prices falling below the 50 EMA on the second retest.  Also note the bullish green candle off of the 50 EMA on the last attempt
• Market broke out of recent trading range with a bullish green candle ( 4 ).  Market then proceeded to trade in a sideways trading range (marked by purple lines)
• Two significant periods of market pullback were support at the uptrending MAs ( 5 )
• Market finally broke out of the trading range and surged to new multi-years highs ( 6 )
• After the breakout, market continued to use the 20 week EMA as support on the trend.  This ended in May with two bearish candles to move under the 20 EMA ( 7 ).  This is a red flag to the current Weekly uptrend
• Despite the recent pullback the Weekly trend is still up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA ( 8 )
• Market has rallied up to take out the previous highs to keep the overall uptrend in tact

Daily Chart:

• This chart starts with MAs in an uptrend starting from Late 2005 with 20 EMA above the 50 EMA
• Market Daily chart broke its uptrend goes into a downtrend with 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( A )
• Due to recent market rally, MAs have gone into an uptrend with the 20 EMA crossing up above the 50 EMA ( B ).  While we do note this crossover up, we do temper our enthusiasm to the upside with prices in the General Resistance Area.  MA crossovers in these areas can be choppy and meaningless. We will continue to watch market action carefully near this area 
• Market traded up today, closing above the 5 day EMA ( C ) maintaing its short term uptrending bias
• We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA, which can give great signal for the sustainability of the current trends.  Market has once again found support at the recent pullback at the 20 EMA.  We will keep our eyes on the low of that pullback as a critical area of support for the current Daily uptrend
• Stochastics has come down below the overbought 80 line ( D ) and is in a downtrend.  This is a mixed signal from the Hourly uptrend

Hourly Chart:    

• This chart shows a the Hourly chart which was in a sideways range until a breakout past resistance at point ( E )
• Market proceeded with a smooth trend above the uptrending MAs
• Market broke its uptrend at point ( F ) with an initial MA crossover down
• MAs quickly reversed back up and has experienced multiple crossovers indicating the market was more in a sideways range rather than up or downtrend
• Currently the Hourly MAs are in a downtrend.  After a brief rally to the downtrending MAs ( G ), market continued lower and briefly took out the last support low.  This could be early signs of a starting trend.  We will continue to monitor the action around the MAs closely for signs of a trend
• After brief trading at the low end of the recent trading range, market rallied, causing the 20 EMA to cross up above the 50 EMA ( H ).  Frequent crossovers are a sign of a sideways trading range.  We will continue to keep our eyes on the recent highs and lows (purple lines) for clues on the next trend
• After testing the upper end of the recent trading range (top purple line) market pulled back finding temporary support at the uptrending MAs.  The 20 EMA remains above the 50 EMA keeping the uptrend intact. 
• Shortly after breaking resistance to new trend highs ( I ), market fell back into the recent range, causing a MA crossover down ( J ).  This was a potentially bearish signal
• After a brief consolidation under the MAs, market has surged ahead creating a MA crossover up ( K ).  Frequent crossovers are characteristic of a sideways range.  We will keep a close watch on the recent highs for signs of continuation of the previous breakout attempt

5 Minute Chart: 

• Intraday market broke out of the sideways trading range at point ( L ).  We will monitor market action at the MAs going forward for the sustainability of the current intraday uptrend

Assessment:

The Macro weekly uptrend is still bullish with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.   Market ended the month in new Multi-year high territory, thereby keeping the uptrend in tact.

The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart.  Despite the uptrend, we would like to caution traders that due to the recent rise in the market with little to no consolidation, the market is very susceptible for possible near term corrections.  We will continue to keep our eyes on the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the current uptrend. 

The short term trend is sideways to up with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA.  This is confirmed with the short term factor on the Daily with prices closing above the 5 day EMA.  Stochastics are still in a downtrend, so there is a bit of a mixed signal there.  Overall we assess the short term trend to be sideways to up.   We will keep a close watch on the recent trend highs for signs of this assessment to change to a more convincing uptrend.

We now have confirming signals between short and long term trends.   However with the short term trend in a sideways range we will remain conservative with our trading while looking for opportunities on both sides of the market.   We will adopt a slight bias to the long side of the market.

These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.

Trading Recap:

January was a tough start to the year.  The markets chopped in a sideways range for most of the month.  The SP 500 did manage gains of 1.40%.  Our swing trading, on the other hand, experienced a setback.  Results came in at -11.65% for 4.07 in point losses.  Despite this setback, Monthly performance numbers are still at a healthy 8.52% for 3.73 points. 

Despite the choppy month, Day Trading was the star service as we pulled in nice gains of 17.29% for 7.66 in point profits. Monthly averages are still at an astounding 32.36% for 12.09 points.  Our streak of 100% winning months continues.

Day Trading Limited had another fantastic month, despite the tough day trading conditions.  Gains came in at a smooth 2.42% for 1.75 in point profits.  This service is ideal for traders who have very limited access to the markets intraday but want to take advantage of profitable intraday moves in stocks. 

E-minis trading was hit the hardest of the services.  Losses on the month totaled 2,750.  This is a very real reminder of the challenges of trading.  We report the good and the bad, and will be the first to say that losses are apart of all trading strategies.  We look to rebound in a big way in the coming months with a consistent and proven futures trading strategy. 

Two new items to announce:

• Online seminars for those aspiring to be a career day trader
• Auto trading now available for Swing Trading and E-minis trading

For more information on these two new and exciting services, feel free to visit our website at http://swingtrades.com .

Here is a recap of the performance numbers: